On War, Peace, and Smart Machines: Rethinking Defense in an Age of Disruption

Since World War II, defense strategy has relied on a set of assumptions that once reliably protected nations. But today, those assumptions are rapidly becoming obsolete. In recent conversations with global military leaders, one theme emerged: the foundations of modern defense are no longer fit for purpose.

The Maginot Line of Modern Warfare

Defense departments continue to invest in systems that resemble the Maginot Line—impressive, expensive, and ultimately ineffective. Even the most powerful militaries have found themselves bogged down in asymmetric conflicts, outmaneuvered by smaller, more agile forces.

This isn’t just bureaucratic inertia—it’s the challenge of reimagining deeply embedded systems involving thousands of actors and decades of investment.

Seven Assumptions That No Longer Hold

1. Big Metal Wins

Military might used to be measured in tons—aircraft carriers, tanks, missile silos. But today, an AI-directed swarm of drones can overwhelm even the most formidable hardware.

📊 In mid-2025, Ukraine claimed to destroy 34% of Russia’s air missile defense in a single night using drones launched from 3,000 miles away.

2. Human Capacity Limits Technology

Artificial intelligence now enhances targeting precision, accelerates flight speeds, and coordinates battlefield strategy. It extends reach, compresses decision cycles, and redefines what machines can do in war.

3. Alliances Are Stable

As energy needs shift from oil to electricity and rare earth minerals, geopolitical alliances are being reshaped.

🌍 Greenland became a strategic focal point in early 2025 when President Trump floated the idea of making it a U.S. territory—driven by its mineral wealth.

4. We Know Our Enemies’ Strategies

Innovation has made this assumption dangerously naïve. From AI labs to biotech startups, the tools of war are now accessible to small groups and individuals.

🧨 Israel used modified pagers to assassinate Hamas leaders—devices that exploded remotely in victims’ pockets.

5. Nation States Control Defense Tech

Private actors now own critical infrastructure. Elon Musk’s SpaceX operates the world’s largest satellite communication network—Starlink.

🛰️ SpaceX is not a government agency, and its loyalties could shift.

6. We Can Find Enough People to Fight

Demographics are working against this assumption. Russia’s aging population has forced it to rely on mercenaries and foreign troops. Wealthy nations face similar challenges.

7. Defense Networks Are Stable

Climate change is rewriting the map. Rising seas threaten naval bases, while extreme weather disrupts supply chains and readiness.

🌊 How do you prepare for war in an increasingly erratic and hostile natural environment?

The Call for Reinvention

When you accept the validity of these trends, one conclusion becomes unavoidable: we must reinvent the very notion of defense. Clinging to outdated assumptions risks not just inefficiency, but existential vulnerability.

This blog, like My Favorite President- Part2 and Mulch Man – Part 3, is part of a broader pattern—an invitation to rethink, reimagine, and reinvent. Whether in defense or any other industry, the forces reshaping our world demand bold, systemic change.

💡 If we understand these trends well, we can anticipate what reinvention looks like. If we don’t, we risk losing massive value—and perhaps much more.